ISIS is not popular. People don’t like them. When ISIS first popped up they were the new, cool kids on the block. There were serious fears about ISIS spreading both regionally in the Middle East, and internationally. There were serious fears about ISIS creating a state strong enough to deploy WMDs, such as chemical or biological weapons, in attacks. There were fears your kid could be recruited.
ISIS utilized social media very effectively. They always upped the shock factor to a world which thought itself desensitized to the horrors of war in the modern age. Whether they were burning Jordanian pilots alive, or executing people with RPGs, ISIS loved to create a good snuff film to recruit more deranged individuals to their case.
These days it seems ISIS is more likely to leave a legacy of who didn’t they tick off than a grand caliphate.
Here’s a very short list of nations and groups fighting ISIS:
- United States
- Australia
- Canada
- Belgium
- Denmark
- Sweden
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Turkey
- Netherlands
- Jordan
- Morocco
- United Kingdom
- Iran
- Russia
- Saudi Arabia
- Bahrain
- United Arab Emirates
- Iraqi Shia Militias
- Hezbollah
- Egypt
- Libya
- Nigeria
- Cameroon
- Chad
- Niger
- Burundi
- Syria (Bashar al-Assad Regime)
- Free Syrian Army
- Kurds
- Taliban (Seriously)
- Afghanistan
- Al Qaida (I’m serious)
Facing these kinds of odds it should come as no surprise that ISIS isn’t exactly doing well these days.
This map from 2016 shows how over two years ISIS managed to lose nearly a quarter of its total territory. As of April 2017 they have lost an additional quarter of their territory. Does this mean ISIS is defeated? No, far from it. They still control substantial territory. But groups like ISIS need to spread. They need to be able to conquer – to loot the land, enslave women, and spread their message. Whenever a group like ISIS stagnates, it loses support. They are no longer able to deliver on their promised message.
Foreign fighters have begun to flee ISIS as they lose territory. I guess the caliphate wasn’t all it was cracked up to be. Engaging in your sick, depraved activities is a lot less fun when half the world decides to rain hellfire on you.
As ISIS bleeds territory they are likely to follow more standard terrorist operating procedure. That is, they will disperse into cells within a civilian populace, engaging in terror acts for maximum social impact, but likely doing little real harm. I do not mean to dismiss the lives of those who have, and will, die in ISIS related attacks. But the reality is you’re just not likely to die in a terror attack, and they’re not going to be overthrowing your government.
With ISIS lacking the territory, funds, brainpower, and infrastructure to create any sort of real weapons of mass destruction the odds of a large scale, meaningful terror attack go from ‘low’ to ‘next to nothing’. They will continue to attempt to inspire random domestic attacks for which they may claim credit, but they won’t be popping a nuke off anywhere.
ISIS will be forced to follow the more traditional al Qaida approach of these cells, small attacks, destabilizing efforts, and generally being pricks. But their actions have left them with next to no safe haven. Go away ISIS, no one wants you here.
That is not to say that they are lacking in ambition. ISIS is attempting to spread both to Afghanistan and to Africa. The security situations in these nations are very different than Syria and Iraq, and they are unlikely to begin to create anything near the wannabe-caliphate they appeared on the verge of creating years ago. They may control some territory, but nothing near their former glory days.
The world is winning the war against ISIS, but ISIS is a cancer. They may be in remission, but the threat will always remain. Expect to see ISIS look more like al Qaida in the coming years than the ISIS we know today.
Don’t let a fear of ISIS affect you. There are a lot of men and women from every part of the planet who have full-time jobs killing them. And they’re very good at what they do. In another few years ISIS will be nigh-extinct in terms of turf and influence, at least compared to their height. In the meantime, I’d buy stocks in bombs…
The Rushin Perspective 
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