A year ago I wrote a hypothesis on who might be charged criminally before any indictments went out. It’s time to update the list! It should be noted that this list is only partial, and only an update of my previous post. A new one will need to be drafted in the near future to account for changing variables.
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If – and this is still a big if – criminal charges are ultimately brought against an ever-expanding list of those involved in President Trump’s 2016 campaign, who would potentially be involved? In the event the ongoing investigations come to fruition and charges are brought then this would likely result in a peeling the onion scenario. In most investigations the superficial, initial evidence is limited. Investigators have to dig deep to get to the root of the problem. And to network all of those involved.
This will not be exceptionally detailed, but rather a somewhat cursory listing of who would likely be involved – and who would likely not.
So if these investigations into Russian connections pan out, who’s screwed?
Donald J Trump
Position – President of the United States
Likelihood of Charges – High
Evidence – As the candidate behind the election it is unlikely Trump would have been ignorant of the goings on of his campaign. Were Russian involvement to be proven then Trump would, at the very least, likely have to resign. Odds are he would face criminal prosecution. Trump has historical ties to Russian mobsters/bankers, and his sons have disclosed alleged Russian funding in the past. The Russians had their foot in the door. Developing Trump into an asset would not have been difficult from that point on.
Mike Pence
Position – Vice President of the United States, Child Beater
Likelihood of Charges – Hard to tell
Evidence – Directly against Pence? There really isn’t that much. But being that close to the inner circle, come on. If someone else knew outside of the Trump/Kushner clan, it would likely be Pence.
Eric Trump
Position – Running the family business
Likelihood of Charges – Medium to High
Evidence – Eric Trump has detailed alleged Russian financing of the Trump empirein the past. It is not unreasonable to suspect the Trump family’s insular nature to have exposed him to family secrets. Were the Trump campaign to have been compromised, Eric Trump would likely have been in the know.
Donald Trump Jr
Position – Running the family business
Likelihood of Charges – Medium to High
Evidence – Donald Trump Jr. also allegedly bragged about Russian financing of Trump assets, and would likely be in the same boat as Eric Trump.
Ivanka Trump
Position – Running the family business, writing life advice for women from the standpoint of an out of touch wealthy white woman, being a piece of ass to her father
Likelihood of Charges – Medium to High
Evidence – There is a lack of evidence on Ivanka compared to the rest of the family. Still, given her position she would likely have been in the know. That she can speak in complete sentences and doesn’t look like a South Park caricature, unlike her brothers, hardly means she was kept in the dark. Odds are if there is a proven connection, Ivanka would be charged. She just hasn’t self-incriminated to the extent of the rest of the Trump clan.
Melania Trump
Position – Absentee First Lady
Likelihood of Charges – Low
Evidence – Melania Trump mostly appears to have wanted the simple, rewarding life of a trophy wife. Despite having a criminal past herself, there is likely nothing implicating her in the Russian plot. She and Trump don’t seem particularly fond of one another. Fortunately all Melania is costing Americans is a lot of money, as opposed to undermining our democracy.
Jared Kushner
Position – Senior Advisor to the President
Likelihood of Charges – High
Evidence – Oh. My. God. Where. Do. I. Start.
Paul Manafort
Position – Former Campaign Head for President Trump
Likelihood of Charges – Somewhere in the stratosphere
UPDATE: Charged with conspiracy against the United States.
Evidence – Manafort has worked for the Russians before. Manafort worked as a political consultant in the Ukraine advancing Russian interests. Manafort received millions for aiding Putin’s allies. Unlike most of the other people on this list, none of this is speculation. He’s already in a lot of trouble.
Carter Page
Position – Foreign Policy Adviser on Trump Campaign
Likelihood of Charges – High
UPDATE: FBI is grilling Carter Page currently.
Evidence – Well, the FBI saw fit to obtain a FISA warrant to monitor him. That happens when the intelligence community thinks you’re a foreign agent.
Michael Flynn
Position – Former National Security Advisor
Likelihood of Charges – High
UPDATE: Plead guilty to lying to the FBI.
Evidence – Oh, yeah. Well. That seems bad. He also met with Putin. In person. And got paid for it. Then he went on the Russian mouthpiece, Russia Today, and was paid for it. He’s broken so many rules and laws it’s hard to keep track. Regardless of what happens with the overall Russia investigation, expect Flynn to end up in jail.
Steve Bannon
Position – White House Chief Strategist, Racist Blowhard
Likelihood of Charges – High
UPDATE: Bannon has been interviewed multiple times by Mueller.
Evidence – Steve Bannon came to fame by working at the top of Breitbart. Breitbart is a website for the alt-right, which casually throws around racism, misogyny, and homophobia. This isn’t about fake news – hell, the FBI is investigating them. Now he works for Trump. Given his proximity to the innermost workings of the administration, his own history, and the allegations against his former ‘news’ site, it is likely that Bannon would have knowledge of, or been directly involved in, Russian interference.
Betsy DeVos
Position – Secretary of Education
Likelihood of Charges – Medium
Evidence – Betsy DeVos flies under the radar in regards to the Trump-Russia investigation. But she may end up being one of the key players later on. Her brother, Erik Prince, hosted a Seychelles meeting to allegedly establish a Trump-Putin back channel. How involved she was, or was not, will have to be determined in the future. But I believe there is far more to Ms. DeVos than simply wanting armed teachers to protect American children against bear attacks.
Reince Priebus
Position – White House Chief of Staff
Likelihood of Charges – Low to medium
UPDATE: Interviewed by Robert Mueller.
Evidence – There is no evidence that Reince Priebus was involved in the alleged Russian campaign to benefit Donald Trump as of May 11th, 2017. At least information that is in the public domain. Reince Priebus is an establishment Republican, and former head of the Republican National Committee. However, being in the position he is now – White House Chief of Staff – were wrongdoing ongoing then he would likely have been exposed, and potentially involved, in it.
Jeff Sessions
Position – Attorney General
Likelihood of Charges – High
Evidence – Jeff Sessions met with the man regarded as the Russian spymaster in the United States. Jeff Sessions promised to recuse himself from any campaign investigations, then endorsed the FBI director’s firing. Jeff Sessions has lied under oath. He’s not even trying.
Mitch McConnell
Position – Senate Majority Leader
Likelihood of Charges – Medium
Evidence – Mitch McConnell is unlikely to be criminally prosecuted for any ties to the Russian-Trump campaign. Another establishment Republican, it is very likely that McConnell was directly involved. However, McConnell has proven to be very interested in trying to make all of this go away. So there is a possibility that McConnell was, or rather is, aware of wrongdoing.
Paul Ryan
Position – Speaker of the House
Likelihood of Charges – Low
Evidence – Similar to McConnell, Paul Ryan was never really a Trump fan. Ryan and Trump have often had an adversarial relationship, and Ryan is your typical establishment Republican.
Devin Nunes
Position – Republican House Representative from California’s 22nd District
Likelihood of Charges – High
UPDATE: Formerly I had Devin Nunes at low, but his desperate attempts to protect Trump suggest something more nefarious. I have moved him to ‘High’ for charges in the future.
Evidence – Something ain’t right with the boy. Still, I don’t think charges would necessarily be likely. Despite having likely committed some breach of protocol or the law, in the grand scheme of things Rep. Nunes would be very low on the totem poll.
The Rushin Perspective 
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