North Korea – Nukes & You

Any living US adult who even remotely pays attention to the news should be aware, and likely desensitized to, news about North Korea. While little more than a chapter in most US history textbooks, the North Korean threat to South Korea – and the world – is very real. Furthermore, the North Korean threat to the United States is very real. Perhaps not directly, in terms of their ability to deliver a nuclear weapon to the continental United States, but in their ability to disrupt the US economy, and force the US into a bitter conflict.

North Korea is used to getting away with highly provocative actions. These attacks are designed to solidify domestic support from the North Korean military around the leadership, now Kim Jong-Un, and to show the world that North Korea is still relevant. Their nuclear program is their holy grail, with the ultimate goal being to ensure North Korean security by making any attack against North Korea so costly that no one would dare attack them. This could also be a bargaining chip in future negotiations to secure aid, or rather force tribute, by threatening a nuclear attack if North Korea does not receive material assistance to bolster its dying economy.

So why is North Korea suddenly a real threat, as opposed to the last several decades?

Primarily, the timer on their nuclear program is running out. A nation – even a superpower as strong as the United States – has only a limited window to act before a state such as North Korea can guarantee that the cost of victory is too high for the domestic audience. Americans can tolerate watching missiles or bombs rain on CNN. Americans can even tolerate a few dozen casualties a month in modern warfare. Americans could not tolerate tens of thousands of servicemen and women dying monthly for a conflict most cannot even fathom as being their own.

Make no mistake about it, the war would be extremely brutal, with North Korean military personnel pouring in via tunnels, and just shy of 30,000 US troops stations in Korea.

More directly threatening than political fallout and a lack of domestic support for action after North Korea has secured a proper nuclear weapon and delivery system is the potential for North Korea to sell said devices to foreign nations or non-government actors (e.g. terrorists) for profit. North Korea has experience in this department, having allegedly purchased a lot of the scientific knowledge for the basis of their program from AQ Khan, the Pakistani villain (or hero, depending on how you view him) who managed to propel another third world nation to nuclear status.

One of the worst case scenarios for the US isn’t that North Korea attacks via nuclear arms a US ally or base, but rather that North Korea provides viable fissile materials to terrorists. This would be far harder to track down, and far more difficult to respond to militarily. There would always be a question of a false flag event, and the longer from the time an event occurs to the time a nation initiates its response, the more questions arise.

Simply put, if the United States does not act before North Korea secures both a nuclear weapon and a delivery system, it will be exceedingly difficult to respond to it ever.

Thus arises the question of China. China is leaned on regularly by US administrations for assistance in clamping down on North Korean nuclear ambitions, but how viable is that?

China has a defense treaty with North Korea, though in reality it would be unlikely to honor this treaty in the event of a war. China has little to nothing to gain from a direct confrontation with the United States, and much to gain from ensuring regional stability going forward after any conflict – as well as utilizing its position as both a neighbor, a deal broker, and an economic aid supplier, to gain a favorable negotiating position.

Economically, China would not exactly be thrilled to see North Korea being cratered by US military-industrial products. China has a substantial trade interest with North Korea, and any conflict would cause serious economic damage, both regionally and internationally. After all, it is hard to develop that nice new Kia mid-size sedan, or deliver on the Samsung Galaxy S9, if the engineers and laborers are off fighting North Koreans.

China’s interest is in the status quo, though it cannot be happy with its eastern neighbor for the headache it has generated. Unlikely though China may be to aid North Korea in any direct conflict, it is unlikely they would be of any help until after the dust has settled – and even then at great cost.

The United States has a mutual defense treaty with South Korea, and would be likely to honor that treaty, as the US has far more to gain in the event of a North Korean defeat. Securing several billion dollars in monthly trade is of serious concern to the US, as would be ensuring North Korea cannot directly or indirectly, via terrorists, attack the US with nuclear arms.

Simply put – the timer is running out. The world has far more to gain from a South Korean/US victory over North Korea, and the Chinese and the Russians are likely to stay out of it, though leverage their positions after the fact to great advantage. If the United States attacks North Korea, or if North Korea attacks South Korea, it will be an exceptionally brutal, violent conflict, but it will end rather quickly given the massive advantage South Korea has in capability, coupled with US backing. But that is not to say that North Korea will go silently into the night, nor will the aftermath necessarily be preferable to hoping the regime crumbles from within.

Many people will die. Global trade will be severely disrupted. And there will be the ever present risk of unintentional escalation. Would a war on the Korean peninsula be worthwhile? That is a gamble. But it may be better than the alternative – the guarantee of a nuclear armed Kim regime.