The Presidential line of succession is well prepared for and rarely tested. The last time it was needed in any meaningful way was when Richard Nixon resigned as President, clearing the path for Gerald Ford to assume the office on August 9th, 1974. This was a peculiar case, as Ford had replaced Vice President Spiro Agnew following Agnew’s own resignation due to corruption charges. When Ford became President he had not been elected in a national vote.
With the Mueller investigation seeming to gain steam it is entirely possible that the line of succession will be tested once more. Let us assume, for the sake of argument, that the Mueller investigation does bear fruit. President Trump either resigns or is forced from office, likely taking Vice President Mike Pence along with him. It is hard to imagine a scenario where President Trump is removed but the political will is there to accept Pence, even assuming he is not directly implicated.
So with the obvious choice out, who is in?
The current line of succession is as follows:
- Vice President – Mike Pence
- Speaker of the House of Representatives – Paul Ryan
- President pro tempore of the Senate – Orrin Hatch
- Secretary of State – John J. Sullivan (Acting)
- Secretary of the Treasury – Steven Mnuchin
- Secretary of Defense – James Mattis
- Attorney General – Jeff Sessions
- Secretary of the Interior – Ryan Zinke
- Secretary of Agriculture – Sonny Perdue
- Secretary of Commerce – Wilbur Ross
We can rule Mike Pence out given that if the administration does end up facing criminal charges there is likely no way Mike Pence will survive the fallout.
Next up, Paul Ryan. Whoever the next Speaker of the House is will likely be a Democrat following the 2018 elections, but even if Republicans maintain a majority, it probably won’t be Paul Ryan. Ryan is looking to retire following this election cycle.
Orrin Hatch has already announced his resignation, so that would be up in the air as well – as is the Senate.
John J. Sullivan is only an acting Secretary of State until he is replaced by a permanent appointment.
Steven Mnuchin, otherwise known as the Hollywood producer with generally good taste in movies and bad taste for a wife, would likely either resign prior to assuming the presidency, or would be forced out as well.
Ret. Gen. James Mattis is the first serious, viable-more-than-six-months-out candidate to speculate about. Respected by both parties, and with enough experience to effectively manage the presidency, Mattis could serve to rebuild trust in the presidency following any massive scandal. Mattis is a registered Independent, and so far there is zero evidence of any corruption or taint surrounding him.
Jeff Sessions is on the outs with President Trump, and it is entirely probable that Sessions is either fired, resigns, or goes down in flames. His contacts with Sergei Kislyak during the campaign are extremely suspect, and he appears besieged on all fronts.
Ryan Zinke would not fly with Congress or the public, given his own record of corruption.
Sonny Perdue, the former Governor of Georgia, has largely flown under the radar, and he has the executive branch experience to potentially work. Still unlikely, given how deep down the chain we are at this point.
Wilbur Ross is also, perhaps not shockingly as the Secretary of Commerce in the Trump administration, …tied to Russia!
Out of the first ten positions in the line of succession nine may be ruled out due to either likely involvement with Russia, personal corruption scandals, or upcoming resignations. This should raise serious alarm bells for the American public, yet it has largely gone unacknowledged.
The line of succession should reassure the public, not serve as a Richter scale for the magnitude of the problems facing the Trump administration.
The Rushin Perspective 
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