America Alone – The U.S. Nuclear Deal Withdrawal

Withdrawing from the nuclear deal with Iran is a disaster.

Losers

United States

Not only does it immediately further the international view of the United States as being utterly bereft of responsible leadership, the withdrawal will have long lasting repercussions. Can anyone trust us as a partner? Why bother to enter into negotiations with the United States if in a matter of years or months the next president could radically alter the equation?

The withdrawal, frankly, makes no sense, at least for the United States.

There are a few winners, however.

Winners

Putin

Vladimir Putin wants to drive a wedge into NATO, and the US withdrawal accomplishes that faster than just about anything else he could’ve imagined. Alliances are about security, yes, but they are rooted just as much in economics. With a few exceptions, such as China, the United States is primarily engaged in security treaties with major economic partners. Guaranteeing national sovereignty, borders, etc., also secures trade and trade routes.

Now that the United States will be seeking to penalize any companies doing business with Iran, which the Europeans and other powers have made clear they intend to continue to allow their companies to do, it puts the United States in the awkward position of potentially sanctioning allies. Sanctioning an ally is an excellent means by which to ensure that nation is no longer an ally.

Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu is facing domestic scandals. International instability traditionally favors right wing governments for their perceived ‘strength’. This is a major policy win for Israel, and Netanyahu in particular, both for the US withdrawal’s service as a distraction, and a likely boost to Netanyahu’s approval rating.

Israel, as a matter of policy, prefers its neighbors to be fighting one another, either state vs state, or civil wars. If your enemies are busy killing one another then they are not uniting against you. Israel’s border territories have largely been secure, with Iran and other groups focused on areas such as Syria.

If Iran is being put under additional economic pressure then that is less money freed up to pay for rockets in Lebanon or the occupied territories for Iran’s proxies.

Who Knows?

North Korea

One of President Nixon’s strategies was to appear insane internationally. This was a calculated move on Nixon’s part. Foreign leaders were less likely to test a man that they could not measure. There was no assuming what Nixon’s response might be. The risk of miscalculating was too high, so most just didn’t try.

North Korea’s leadership over the years, from Kim Il-Sung, to Kim Jong-Il, to Kim Jong-Un, have engaged in the same style of diplomacy. Do something insane, create a crisis, then seek bribes. These were always calculated moves. With President Trump appearing to actually be insane and displaying a willingness to engage in moves disastrous for the United States, this may actually have a silver lining in its ability to bring North Korea to the table in a serious manner.

The Kim regime has always been primarily focused on its own preservation. If you are looking across the sea at a superpower that is being led by someone such as President Trump, where you have to wonder whether or not he might actually start a nuclear war, then the best means by which to ensure self-preservation is to offer concessions. In this case, freezing or dismantling their nuclear program.

At least for now…

If history is any indicator, and with the Kim regime it certainly is, then in a matter of months or years North Korea will be back to testing missiles and nukes. Though I would wager this will be unlikely to begin again until after President Trump is out of office.

On the other hand, why would North Korea wish to negotiate with the United States? We are unreliable.

North Korea may be more inclined to negotiate with other powers, such as South Korea, over the United States in terms of anything substantial – another indicator of our weakening international standing. This will likely be true for nations across the world.

Why talk to a nation when that nation’s word means nothing? Why talk to a nation that stands alone?