What Not To Do: Foreign Policy Edition

The recent collapse of President Trump’s talks with North Korea not only highlights Trump’s foreign policy ignorance, but serves as a rare example of a complete and total foreign policy victory over the United States by a foreign adversary. Usually even foreign policy debacles or extreme tests result in some form of gain elsewhere due to the intelligence and equanimity displayed by an administration’s leadership, such as during the Cuban Missile Crisis when President Kennedy’s team managed to get Soviet nuclear weapons out of Cuba without causing World War III. Or when, despite the catastrophe of President Carter’s attempted military extraction of hostages during the Iranian Revolution, American Special Forces gained valuable insight into how to effectively plan such raids, ultimately benefiting the United States far down the road when President Obama made the equally risky raid to invade Pakistan and assassinate Osama bin Laden.

In President Trump’s handling of North Korea there is no silver lining for the United States, other than a textbook example of ‘What Not To Do: Foreign Policy Edition’.

• President Trump preemptively declared this to be a great victory, with peace in our time between the world powers and North Korea.
• President Trump did not receive verifiable guarantees of de-nuclearization by North Korea.
• Kim Jong-Un received international validation for his regime by showing it capable of meeting with foreign powers on what was tantamount to ‘their’ (western) terms.
• Kim Jong-Un received incredible photo opportunities for propaganda, with President Trump saluting a North Korean General.
• Kim Jong-Un has shown the United States to be a weak and ineffective player on the international stage, thus strengthening North Korea’s negotiating position with South Korea, China, and others as the United States may no longer be counted on.

Simply put, Kim Jong-Un played President Trump, and as a result the United States has a drastically weakened international standing. This will likely result in the United States effectively being ignored in future talks over North Korea, though with United States military assets still in the region the United States cannot be entirely ignored.

The danger then stems from how will President Trump react when the reality – if it ever does – hits him?

President Trump is not known to be a fully rational leader, speculating about invading Venezuela off the cuff last year, or doubling down on his trade war which disproportionately affects his base.  But short of lashing out and starting a war, the administration’s hands are tied.  Their partners will be inclined to ignore them, with only North Korea seeking to further engage the United States for propaganda purposes or to goad South Korea and China into capitulating to avoid risking escalation between the North Koreans and Trump.

This is uncharted water for the administration, with most foreign policy disasters being of their own design and choosing. How they will handle one of another power’s choice is to be seen, but regardless I expect the United States to be sitting in the corner at the children’s section during the next summit.