A Simple Summary of the 2018 Election

Psychologically the 2018 elections were not the “blue wave” that many Democrats had hoped for.

In practical terms, it was a massive victory for Democrats.

Legislative (Federal)

• Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2018, 26 were held by Democrats and 9 by Republicans. A net loss of only two seats is a win, as the next two election cycles will have more Republicans on the defensive than Democrats. Both 2020 and 2022 could lead to a majority, or perhaps even filibuster proof majority of 60+ Senate seats for Democrats.
• The House flipped, providing Democrats control of their only partial branch of government. The Republicans control the Executive branch and, for all practical purposes, the Judicial branch with the confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh.

Executive (Federal)

• With the Democrats controlling the House this allows them to exercise some semblance of being a check and balance on President Trump’s power. Bills that are outside of the mainstream may now be blocked by the House. Though the Republicans control the Senate, and therefore much of the confirmation process for Executive appointments, the House may still exert influence over budgets and other items that will limit President Trump’s power.
• In the event of impeachment proceedings this makes it far more likely President Trump will be impeached by at least half of Congress, similar to President Clinton in the 90’s where the House voted for impeachment and the Senate blocked it.

Judicial (Federal)

• Federal judges appointed by Trump will still be handled and vetted by the Senate, but the Republicans already control this branch. The election does, however, provide the opportunity in the future for the extraordinary potential of Justice Kavanaugh facing impeachment himself.

Legislative (State Level)

• Democrats picked up 300+ state level seats.
• This is critical to balancing the extreme gerrymandering that has plagued this nation since the last census and map redrawing of 2010. With Democrats balancing much of the map out we may all hope for districts that do not resemble a garden snake in layout, with intentional voter disenfranchisement.

Executive (State)

• Democrats gained 7 executive mansions at the state level, with Republicans losing 6.
• This is, again, critical to balancing out gerrymandering and getting approval for more balanced maps in 2020.

Judicial (State)

• Democrats picked up several state Attorney General offices.
• Democratic State AG’s have been working in conjunction to coordinate lawsuits against Trump administration policies. This will further embolden and strengthen opposition at the state level.

This was not a favorable election year for Democrats from a map point of view, and yet they barely bled in the Senate, gained heavily in the House, and won handily at the state level.

Provided Trump’s base continues to lose support, Democrats can maintain energy going into 2020, and nothing extraordinary happens – which seems unlikely, given the Mueller investigation – then Democrats are in good shape to do well in 2020 and 2022.

What I am saying is there is absolutely no way to predict how 2020 and 2022 will go, but the Democrats aren’t in a bad spot, if nothing else.