2019 Predictions

Domestic

Trade War – The trade war will continue to hit its intended targets by foreign powers, notably American Midwestern farm exports. As China continues to develop new supply chains for these goods, such as from Brazil for soybeans, American markets will struggle to recover. The American farmer will likely pay a heavy price for years to come for their votes. Once a new supply chain is established, and one that may be perceived as far more stable, then there is little reason to return to an old one. The silver lining for American farmers competing against Brazil may be Brazil’s own election – they recently put their own Trump into power.

Markets – Market instability in 2019 is likely to continue as Trump keeps on being Trump. Many of Trump’s policies have been good for the wealthy and for many companies, but their sustainability is suspect, such as the tax cuts. Markets dislike volatility. Whether they like Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation more is difficult to tell. I suspect they will go up and down quite a bit, but historical trends indicate a weakening of the economy.

Income Inequality – Though it may not hit come tax season this year, the new Democratic House majority will likely latch onto the Trump tax cuts as a focus of theirs going into the new year. The Trump tax cuts will wither over time, eventually costing the middle and lower class more than they were paying in the past. I suspect this will become a focal point for Democrats in the class warfare debate.

Congressional Gridlock – With a Republican majority in the Senate, and a Democratic majority in the House, with a Trump presidency, this isn’t exactly a bold stance.

Supreme Court – The Supreme Court has made it clear that not only is the legislative branch attempting to act as the adult in the room, but that they’re seeking to avoid unnecessarily divisive topics. Chief Justice Roberts is likely acutely aware that history will judge the “Roberts Court” strongly, hence some of his perhaps more surprising votes as of late.

Mueller Report – I believe Mueller’s report will drop by the end of 2019. We are nearing the end game as sentencing has begun for the likes of former Lt. Gen. Flynn. The Special Counsel’s Office would not be willing to allow for sentencing were the charged individuals still capable of providing useful information. If people such as Flynn and Cohen have provided all that they have to share to Mueller, then Mueller must be entering the end game.

Internationally

Brexit – I firmly believe that once the Brexit is fully implemented it will hurt the British more than they expect. When Trump was first elected I remember in the initial months following the election that things still seemed, for the most part, normal. That was because we still had an adult in the White House. The effects of Brexit are yet to be truly felt. Once it is enacted the British will deal with the new reality – and given Prime Minister May’s failings thus far, it is unlikely to go well.

Russian Power Projection – Russia is aiming to expand to the Caribbean for the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis. With the US withdrawal from Syria it is clear that Russian power in Syria is likely to remain fairly uncontested. Their naval base in Tartus is secure. Russia will continue to take advantage of Trump’s lack of willingness to confront Russia directly by making the most of their clearly limited time to do so by expanding their influence as much as possible – the Caribbean, the Middle East, Crimea. Expect more of this to come.

Syrian Power Vacuum – Syria will be a disaster. ISIS is unlikely to come anywhere close to their former power any time soon, but I have consistently labeled ISIS as a cancer over the years, and I stand by that. If a cancer is not wiped out then it may return. I believe ISIS will do so.

Kurdish Genocide by Turkey – With the US leaving Syria, Turkey has made it clear they intend to go after the Kurds and exploit the situation. I strongly suspect ISIS is a tertiary concern of Turkey’s compared to targeting the Kurds. Why would Erdogan do this? Besides Turkey’s historical hatred of Kurds, it is likely an attempt to distract from Turkey’s own domestic issues.

Venezuela – Venezuela doesn’t get as much news as perhaps it should, but they are already effectively a failed state. This will likely compound, like their inflation, in 2019.

The New Drug Continent – I believe Africa will grow not just as a consumer, but a distributor, of illegal drugs. This will present new security challenges, much as it has in Central and South America, though likely more for Europe than the United States, given proximity. Extremist organizations have historically used illicit substances for revenue, and Africa will be no different.

Chinese Expansion & Slowdown – The Chinese economy will continue to slow down, due to a combination of factors, but their interest in expanding their influence under Xi Jinping will continue. Xi has made international power and influence one of his hallmarks, and this is likely to continue. Historically China’s largest threat to their government has come from the impoverished peasants in the core of the nation taking their dissatisfaction against their wealthier coastal brethren and overthrowing the government, such as Mao’s insurrection. This will be a key point for Xi to tackle. But one I believe he is up to.

North Korea – More of the same. Trump will likely have another summit with Kim. Nothing will change.